When a Huge Pot Limit Omaha 8 or Better Draw Isn't Worth It

In Pot-limit Omaha 8 or better, big draws are the name of the game. Good players know how to manage their draws and realize that the nuts on the flop can actually be pretty far behind. For example, KcQhJhTc looks pretty fantastic on a 9h8d7h flop, but against a hand like Ah3h7c7s, not only is it an underdog to win the high half of the pot but it is a 2.5:1 overall equity underdog and will only scoop around 13% of the time1. Flopping a set, nut flush draw, and low draw on the same hand is pretty tough to do though, and an easy trap for even the experienced player to fall into is overplaying draws that look a lot better than they really are. Let’s look at some situations where falling in love with a big draw could get you into trouble: For simplicity’s sake, we’ll say that everyone at the table has 125 Big Blinds (BB) and assume that everyone at the table is a regular, non-maniacal player who knows what they’re doing.




Hand 1: Hero is dealt 7c4c3h2d in early position and decides to mix it up, raising to 3BB. CO pots it and the BB cold calls the two raises. Hero calls. Flop (32 BB): 8c5s3c.



BB checks, Hero checks, CO bets 20BB and BB raises to 60BB. At first glance, this hand looks promising as Hero has third nut low and decent chances for a good high hand with 9 outs for a flush, 6 outs for a straight, 8 outs for 2 pair and 2 outs for trip 3s meaning that 25/44 remaining cards in the deck will improve him to two pair or better. The problem is Hero has very few Turn/River cards where he can actually feel safe with his hand given the action. With the bet and raise, it’s very possible that Hero’s flush draw is no good and his low is almost certainly no good at the moment against the two better low possibilities (A2/A4). There are only 3 non-club aces the will give Hero the nuts with a wheel but due to the reraise preflop, it’s very likely that CO has 2 of them and we also assume that the BB has one as it would be very difficult to call two raises preflop and then checkraise this flop without A2 meaning there is probably only one Ace left in the deck. The three remaining non-club 6 will give Hero a second nut straight which will probably be good but the trip 3s are dangerous because if either opponent has the last 3 or flopped a set, that’s a dangerous card. Hitting two pair is almost worthless as it will make straights possible (especially the 2 or 4 and that will give the good low hands a wheel. So overall, Hero probably only has 1 out to scoop and somewhere between 4 and 6 (Depending if the trip 3s are good) cards to even take the lead for half.



Hand 2: Hero is dealt 8h7s6h5s in mid position and limps, seeing a flop with the Button and both blinds. Flop (4 BB): 9s6s3d. Hero bets pot, Button calls, SB folds but BB check-raises, repotting to 20BB. This time Hero has a wrap straight draw and a bad flush draw although he does have a gutshot straight flush draw. This time Hero has cleaner outs with 8 flush cards, 14 straight cards and the straight flush card (8s). Of these outs, ten of them (Non-spade 4,5,T or 8s) will give Hero the nut high hand, however everything but the 3 tens will bring a low out which will in all likelihood give an opponent a lock on half of the pot. If Hero reraises, he will probably convince the Button to fold, which may improve his low possibilities, but he would have to move all in to do so. It’s also quite possible that the CO has a hand like As2s7dTd that could simply call the flop waiting to improve but would not mind committing his entire chip stack in a 3 way all-in where his implied equity is a lot better against multiple opponents with a nut low draw, nut flush draw and gutshot to the nut straight. So despite the number of good hands Hero can make and the high likelihood the he will improve, odds are he will be lucky just to split the pot with a straight against a better low. Additionally, even if he hits one of his draws to the nuts, only the 8s will protect him from possible full house or higher flush redraws. This is a dangerous spot, and Hero should simply fold this to the BB’s reraise. I’m all for creative play, however this is simply not a hand that you should voluntarily commit chips with. Even when it looks like you hit a great flop you almost certainly have not, so it’s best to avoid putting yourself in a difficult spot like this by simply folding trashy hands preflop.



Hand 3: Hero is dealt AsJsTd9d on the Button and calls a raise to 3BB from the CO. First of all, I think it’s important to make a few comments about this hand’s playability preflop. Many players would lump this hand into the same category as hand 2 and some may even consider it worse because it has no low potential at all. However, I advocate playing hands like this in position for a couple reasons. First of all, you’ll rarely continue with this hand unless two or more high cards flop, so unlike hand 2 you won’t be subjected to as many tough decisions. Second of all, if you do hit, it’s unlikely that your opponents will have hit as well. When no low draw flops, this hand gains a lot of strength and even on a mediocre high flop like QsJc2h which doesn’t give Hero a made hand, he still has 8 nut straight outs, 2 outs for trips, 9 outs for two pair (which may be good despite the fact that any two pair will bring out a straight) and a backdoor nut flush draw. When Hero does flop well, he’ll get to act behind the original raiser and put him to a tough decision with a sizable bet and no low draw immediately available to Villain. Unlike in limit, where a hand like AA3x would only have to call 1.5 big bets to see a river, in PLO8, you can protect against low draws with a pot sized bet on the flop and a turn bet 3 times as big. If CO has a high continuation bet %, this preflop call is even more profitable.



Flop (9.5 BB): 8h7s5s. BB bets 6BB and CO raises to 21BB. Hero once again has a flush draw and wrap straight draw, giving him 10 straight outs and 9 flush outs, but this time all of them are draws to the nuts with the exception of the 8s which could give an opponent a full house (and some unlikely straight flush possibilities). Hero will improve to the nut straight or flush slightly more than 2/3 of the time. However, since the board already makes a low possible and Hero can not even be eligible for a low, he will be fighting for half of the pot at best. Hitting the nuts 2/3 of the time is nothing to sneeze at so this hand still might be playable especially because it’s very possible that both players will continue with their low hands, meaning Hero could make a profit by winning half of a 3 way pot. The problem is that if Hero calls, the BB could reraise, forcing him to commit all of his chips with no made hand and hoping for only half the pot at best. Even if Hero calls and the BB simply calls or folds behind, Hero needs to hit one of his cards on the turn or else he will be susceptible to a big turn bet from the CO with no hand and no chance to scoop. Additionally, there is a small chance that one of the players could have a set or two pair and improve to a full house, making Hero’s hand completely dead. Despite the plethora of high outs, the fact that a low hand is already killing half of the pot makes this hand unplayable for Hero with two players showing strength. Although this flop is tempting, the strength of high-only hands lies in putting pressure on opponents on boards with one or fewer low cards. You’ll almost never continue on a board with 2 low cards, much less a board with 3. You can profitably play hands like this in position but be sure that you see a helpful high flop before you continue.



All of these hands, especially hand 3 would be much stronger in PLO but in PLO8 they all need to be folded. When many players flop a big draw, they let their mind run wild with all of the chances that they could improve to a big hand without realizing that many of the cards that will help them might not end up resulting in much of a profit, and could actually allow opponents to quarter them or worse, freeroll against them with a lock one way and a few redraws for a scoop. Managing draws and having a feel for when they should be pushed, called, or folded is a major skill necessary for a winning PLO8 player.